Six Shots on Target is Your Magic Number
When betting in play, it's hard to know when a goal is coming. Football analysts love to point toward xG at the moment, and many think that is the best way to summarize who should have won a game. But the statistics can be somewhat deceiving. For example, if a team misses a penalty, they will already have almost one expected goal on their tally, but there's no guarantee that the team will receive another penalty and as such, the stat doesn't really help you in determining which side is going to score next, or if a goal is coming.
One statistic that does, however, is the number of shots on target. Statisticians have determined that on average, it takes around six shots on target for a goal to be considered due. Now, of course, there are no guarantees on any front. A team could score with their first shot on target, while another team can hammer away and hit an opponent with everything but the kitchen sink but still not manage to find a way through.
What we're saying is that if you see that a team has had six shots on target, a game overall has that number of SOTs combined, or there have been six shots on target since the last goal, it could be wise to place a bet on the total goals market. For example, if a game is 0-0 after 30 minutes and the magical number of shots has been achieved, it could be wise to place a bet on over 0.5 goals in the first half. Alternatively, if a team is trailing 2-1 and you can see they have had six shots on target since their previous goal, it could be smart to bet on popular markets such as them to score next, or for them to win/draw the game.
Beware the Midweek Burnout
Elite squads face a brutal schedule. It’s midweek Champions League glory one night, and a tough domestic clash just a few days later. Sure, they’re top athletes, but exhaustion catches up to everyone. And that could flip the script on any game.
Heavyweights such as Real Madrid have been able to navigate the rigors of the modern game with a minimum of fuss. But what about smaller teams? Well, one only needs to look at the German side Heidenheim for confirmation of this prophecy.
Last season, the Bundesliga club enjoyed its finest-ever year. They finished eighth in the German top flight in what was their first-ever campaign playing at such a high level. They were rewarded for their exploits with a spot in the Conference League, but the additional game every Thursday has proven far too much for them to handle.
While Heidenheim progressed to the knockout rounds on the continental stage, their Bundesliga campaign has been a disaster, so much so that the sports betting providers are predicting they could suffer relegation this term. FCH currently finds themselves third from bottom at the time of writing, and the latest odds from one of Canada's most popular sports betting providers make them a -250 odds-on contender to suffer relegation this term.
They aren't the only ones to suffer from midweek football. Fellow German side Borussia Dortmund are through to the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League but they currently languish down in 12th place in the Bundesliga. Both Spurs and Manchester United are through to the last eight of the Europa League, but both are in the bottom half of the Premier League table.
So, the tip here is quite simple; make sure you've double and triple-checked your bet before placing one on sides that have already played midweek. And if possible, unless it's Real Madrid, Barcelona, or Bayern Munich, leave them off your ticket altogether.
Check Injuries and Team Values
Think of your lineup knowledge as your scouting report. You wouldn’t step onto the field without knowing who you’re up against, right? The same goes for betting. If you’re not checking injuries, suspensions, and team depth, you’re playing with a blindfold.
The absence of one or two key players can flip an entire game plan upside down. Just take a look at Manchester City. Before this season got underway, The Blues were English football's dominant force, winning the Premier League in each of their last four campaigns. However, a season-ending injury to talismanic midfielder Rodri has Pep Guardiola's side looking like a shadow of its former self.
Without the Spanish midfielder, City have suffered embarrassing defeats such as the 5-1 drubbing away at Arsenal. Their title has already been surrendered, and either the aforementioned Gunners or Liverpool will emerge with the crown, while the Blues lick their wounds and wait for Rodri’s return.
And as pointed out in Bodog’s tweet… it can lead to some shocking results!
Injuries and suspensions to key players can change the dynamic of an entire team. Even if a team is a huge favorite, without their main supply of goals or crucial anchor in defense, they could be vulnerable to a shocking upset.
Also, when betting on a team or league that you aren't as knowledgeable about, it's wise to check how much a team is worth in comparison to their opponents. For example, we all know of French side Lyon and how they usually contend for a spot at the top of the Ligue 1 table. Well, despite being a household name, their total squad value is barely more than compatriots Strasbourg, so while Lyon may well be a huge favorite in a clash between the two teams, the perceived underdog might not be that much of an outsider after all.
